IFA 2024: A Glimmer of Hope

The recent IFA fertilizer conference in Singapore offered a welcome change from the past two years of declining fertilizer prices. There was a positive and upbeat mood among attendees, suggesting a potential turning point for the industry.

Here are some key takeaways:

• Prices for Potash (MOP) may have reached their bottom, with new contracts in India and China potentially setting a floor.

• While demand remains sluggish, there are early signs of a pick-up, particularly in Southeast Asia where good rains are anticipated.

• Uncertainty surrounding China's export policies remains a concern.

• The issue of freight costs continues to be a challenge, with port congestion, high fees, and unpredictable cancellations adding to difficulties.

Despite these uncertainties, prices have firmed across the board since the conference.  Urea is up $30 per ton, DAP $15 per ton, Ammonium Sulphate $10 per ton and MOP has been mostly stable to flat. 

This cautious optimism suggests a possible recovery in the latter half of 2024.